Simulation Model for Foreign Trade During the Crisis in Romania

Diaconescu, Mirela
Begu, Liviu-Stelian
Diaconescu, Mihai
Publication date: 
JEL codes: 
E10 - General, E20 - General, E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, E40 - General, F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements.
The paper proposes to analyze the evolution of foreign trade during the crisis in Romania. The evolution of foreign trade is analyzed using a simulation model. The period of analysis is 2006-2014. The data source is Eurostat and National Bank of Romania. Also, based on these data, we propose an econometric model which can be developed using different scenarios and forecasting of evolution of foreign trade. In period of economic recession, protectionist sentiments against imports competing with domestic products tend to rise. The same phenomenon was manifested in Romania. Thus, our study started from this consideration. Using econometric model we made scenarios predictions and the results are similar to the real values.
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