On Chaotic Nature of the Emerging European Forex Markets

Kumar , S. Anoop
Kamaiah, B.
JEL codes: 
F31 - Foreign Exchange, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies, G15 - International Financial Markets.
This study attempts to analyze the presence deterministic chaos in the forex markets of select European countries namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Slovenia. Monthly NEER data ranging from jan-1994 to Dec-2013 is used for the purpose of analysis. A two step methodology is employed where in the first step, non-linear dependence structure in the underlying time series is verified using BDS test. The results show that all the markets under study exhibit non-linear dependence. In the next stage, it is enquired whether this non-linear behavior is due to the presence of chaotic dynamics in the markets. This is achieved by estimating Lyapunov exponents for the time series under analysis. An EGARCH (1, 1) filter is applied to see if the non-linearity could be explained by a GARCH process. From the Lyapunov exponent values, it is found that the GARCH process is unable to explain the forex markets behavior in a satisfying manner. It is concluded that the forex markets under study exhibit deterministic chaotic behavior.
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